Longwave Group: Economic Forecaster and Interpreter of the Kondatieff Cycle

Obviously, many of my readers are concerned about the price action of the precious metal stocks and particularly the junior mining issues. For the most part I don't share that concern and that's not because I am blindly following an investment strategy that has worked so well for me in the past, believing that it will continue into the future forever. Of course, it won't do that. No bull market ever does that, as those who are investing in the general stock market will eventually find out to their detriment. However, I am convinced that the gold stock bull market is still relatively young and that's not just wishful thinking.
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On a recent trip to China to bolster a relationship with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden commented that the only reason China's economy had become the second largest in the world was due to the American "military stabilizing presence in Asia." Does the Obama administration really believe that Japan or South Korea pose a military threat to China; or vice-versa? Further, Mr. Biden was later quoted as conveying to the press: "I don't sense it a bit that they (the Chinese leadership) needed reassurance about our economic stability." Well, Mr. Biden, you can attempt to fool U.S. Treasury investors around the world with such rhetoric, but it doesn't hold water. The Chinese leadership is held hostage by their own immense Treasury holdings, so are unable to criticize the U.S. Federal Reserve or the U.S. Department of the Treasury without jeopardizing their investment portfolios.
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There is absolutely no way that gold is in a bubble and that those who are making such asinine declarations have neither a clue about what is the principal feature of gold, nor have a clue about what is a bubble. Yes, I know that George Soros, the legendary fund manager, who bet against the pound and won huge has made such an assertion and has essentially, sold all his gold, but he’s wrong and I’d bet the house on that. Of course he made a tidy little profit on his gold bet, but he has sold far too soon and has left a massive profit on the table. It’s not known exactly when Mr. Soros sold his gold, but it was sometime in the first quarter of this year and during that quarter the highest price attained by gold bullion was $1,428 (U.S.) per ounce, which means that already Mr. Soros has effectively, forfeited about $500 (U.S.) per ounce profit and there’s still lots more profit to come. It’s not the potential profit that has been lost by selling gold too soon, it’s the security that owning it gives an investor during a paper money collapse.
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What future bliss, God gives not thee to know,
But gives that hope to be thy blessing now.
Hope Springs Eternal in the Human Breast:
Man never is, but always to be blest.
This headline quotation is excerpted from ‘An Essay on Man’ by English poet Alexander Pope (1688-1744) and published in 1734, as a rationalistic attempt to use philosophy in order to “vindicate the ways of God to man.” Mr. Pope probably never envisaged this quotation of “Hope Springs Eternal” from his poem, ever becoming such a popular and universal reference point down through the ages. Indeed, whether the subject be man’s health, fortune, or just his dreams; as a way of life most people naturally tend to hope for the best. So it is with the topic of individual wealth and riches, gleaned from equity and fixed income investments in the form of capital gains, dividends and coupons. Whether by their own research and knowledge or via the advice of an investment advisor, all investors load their portfolios with securities from which they expect to reap financial rewards. However, since the marketplace can be fragile and risky, while providing no certain guarantees; to varying degrees, all investment portfolios are enshrouded in a well-spring of hope.
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We are now facing the greatest economic crisis the industrial world has ever encountered. This financial crisis is likely to be far greater than any disease or war yet experienced. I have given this matter a great deal of thought before making such an assertion, but I cannot think of any event in history that ever had the ramifications of the current debt crisis, which threatens to engulf the world in a terrifying and massively destructive economic depression. There have been wars and plagues which have resulted in huge losses of human life, but the potential scale of human misery brought about by the collapse of the international debt bubble is likely to be beyond compare. I know that I am frightened, not only for myself and my family, but also for everyone else, because once governments lose control of the debt situation our world will likely turn upside down.
I am sure that many of you will consider me an alarmist. However, my job is to prepare myself, my family, my readers and my friends, for whatever the financial and economic future might hold in store. Alas, what I see in the future, in that vein, is truly frightening.
We are often advised ‘to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.’ Unfortunately, there’s not much ‘best’ that I can see in this whole debt fiasco, which means that we must definitely prepare for the worst.
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An Historic Presidential Condemnation
Recognizing the dangers posed by a nation’s adoption of a credit based monetary system, Thomas Jefferson – the third President of the United States of America from 1801 to 1809 – succinctly summarized: "The central bank is an institution of the most deadly hostility existing against the principles and form of our Constitution. I am an enemy to all banks discounting bills or notes for anything but coin (gold and silver coins). If the American people allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property, until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." This was quite a prescient warning from the third U.S. President, exactly two hundred years prior to the beginning of the current global economic downturn. Indeed, as far back as 1792, Mr. Jefferson had advised President Washington that to charter a national bank was unconstitutional because Congress had not been delegated the power to incorporate a bank; not under its powers to tax, to borrow, or to regulate commerce. Mr. Jefferson argued: "The still unratified Tenth Amendment held that ‘the powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people’ … To take a single step beyond the boundaries, thus specially drawn around the powers of Congress, is to take possession of a boundless field of power."
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Inasmuch as the Kondratieff cycle is based upon the principle of recurring periods of economic expansion and contraction over the long term, at Longwave Analytics we find it interesting that political cycles of human experience can also recur over the long term, as history repeats itself. We are referring to the relentless and hostile tirades against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the late Congressman Louis Thomas McFadden (R.-Penn.) and by Congressman Ronald Ernest Paul (R.-Tex.), 80 years apart, but both within a Kondratieff winter cycle.
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Not since the Great Depression of the 1930’s has the world borne witness to so many sovereign credits, state and municipal governments, banking and financial institutions, as well as various corporate entities and individual consumers, trapped in the vice grip of demonic indebtedness. In terms of sovereign debtors, the global community is now anticipating that Greece will become the first euro zone member to seek a rescheduling and restructuring of its outstanding debt. In the western hemisphere, the United States of America – the most indebted nation on the planet – soars inexorably, towards its statutory debt ceiling limit of $14.3 trillion (U.S.). Given that premise, we are focusing on the sovereign credits of Greece and America for this issue.
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The Great Depression of the 1930's and early 1940's wreaked devastating havoc with the global economy, causing international trade to decline in value by 60% to 70%. In their book, This Time Is Different, authors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff document: "the collapse in international trade (during this period) was only partially the byproduct of sharp declines in economic activity from Western Europe to the United States and from Canada to Australia and New Zealand. The other destructive factor was the worldwide increase in protectionist policies in the form of both trade barriers and competitive (currency) devaluations … Fundamentally, when an (economic) crisis is truly global, exports no longer form a cushion for growth. In a global financial crisis, output, trade, equity prices and other indicators behave qualitatively (if not quantitatively) much the same way for the world aggregates, as they do in individual countries. Typically, a sudden halt in financing, not only hits one country or region, but also, impacts to some extent a large part of the world's public and private sectors … By the end of World War II, countries representing nearly 40% of global gross domestic product (GDP) were in a state of sovereign debt default, or debt restructuring."
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Within the Long Wave economic cycle, there exists a credit expansion cycle which results in extremely high levels of debt by the end of autumn, fueled by massive waves of market speculation. See also, Winter Warning, July 12, 2010 – Four Long Wave Autumns in the United States. At the onset of the collapse of the last winter credit bubble in 1929, the United States was the world’s largest creditor nation. In fact, America had been paying down her national debt throughout the Kondratieff autumn period of 1921-1929; so by the beginning of winter, her total budget deficit amounted to only $16 billion (U.S.). This afforded both the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations the luxury of debt financing on reasonable terms through the following 16-year period of the Great Depression and World War II. Today, however, the fixed income market affords the Obama administration no such advantage. Currently, the United States is the world’s largest debtor nation. During the hugely speculative fervor in the Kondratieff autumn of the 1990’s, the U.S. government made no attempt to pay down the national debt. Rather, the cumulative national debt burden grew from $1 trillion (U.S.) in September 1981 (the beginning of autumn), to $5.6 trillion (U.S.) by September 1999 (the beginning of winter) and to $9 trillion (U.S.) as of September 2007. Thus, the current Obama administration is in a very different fiscal position from the preceding administrations of Hoover and Roosevelt. At the onset of winter, the U.S. government already faces an impossible deficit and doesn’t possess the means to combat the growing economic depression, caused by the collapse of the debt bubble.
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In our Economic Outlook for 2010, published last February 1st. we stated: “The year 2010 will likely introduce the second chapter of the economic depression”. Obviously, this scenario did not unfold within the time frame that we had anticipated, as global gross domestic product (GDP) posted modest gains, mostly as a result of continued government stimulus programs; such as renewed quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve.“However, as we discussed in our Winter Warning publication of January 11, 2010, Its The Debt, Stupid, indebtedness is the economic killer. Debt hasn’t disappeared; in fact, in most sectors of the global economy, it’s bigger than ever.”
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Since early in the year 2000, the holdings in both my wife’s and my investment portfolios have consisted exclusively, of junior precious metals mining shares; principally, of gold companies.
At the age of 58, you might wonder why I chose to do such a risky thing with our money. Well, I didn’t perceive it as being risky at all.
Through my understanding of the Kondratieff cycle I was convinced in 1999, that the great autumn stock bull market was coming to an end and that the Kondratieff winter would soon usher in the age of gold and gold shares, just as it had done after 1929.
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Why is it that throughout history, some nations gain power while others lose it? As the new millennium dawns, this question is, not only of historical interest, but also, important for understanding today’s global economy. Just as great empires of the past flourished and fell, will today’s and /or tomorrow’s empires rise and fall as well? Historians are generally agreed that nations have projected their military power according to their economic resources and in defense of their extensive economic interests. However, the cost of projecting that military power is more than even the largest economies can afford on an indefinite basis. Eventually, new technologies and centers of production will shift economic power away from established superpowers. In his book, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, author Paul Kennedy argues: “It is the uneven economic (GDP) growth rates of countries which, ineluctably, lead to shifts in the world’s political and military balances.” Interestingly, Mr. Kennedy further postulates that since 1500, most of the world’s superpowers basked in their economic superiority over a period of roughly 100 years, or multiples thereof.
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In our Winter Warning of October 20, 2008, “Closing the Barn Door After the Horse Has Fled” – “The Wolves of Avarice” – we warned “if Senator Obama is elected President, together with a Democratic majority in the Senate and twenty seats gained in the House of Representatives, then decidedly, there will be change in America … economic change for the worse!” As formerly jubilant American voters of November, 2008 have discovered, Barack Obama’s presidential campaign founded on “hope and change” has transformed him to a “lame-duck” President in fairly short order. Not surprisingly, the results of the recent mid-term elections revealed an angry and frustrated electorate. Since Republicans now have firm control of the House of Representatives and Democrats cling to control of the Senate, politicians will be forced to work together in a co-operative and bipartisan manner in order to achieve any progress, or compromise with any contested legislation. Moreover, with a myriad of formidable problems and challenges currently facing the nation, Americans are literally crying out for leadership from the White House. Alas, we are not optimistic that anything meaningful will materialize on that front.
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“Over the millennia, dating back to the time of ancient Egypt in 3150 B.C., gold has always been highly prized by mankind. Indeed, whether used for ornamentation, or as a medium of exchange, gold has a long history as a store of value. Gold has withstood the test of time in terms of its density, malleability and lustre. The price of gold was first standardized in 1717 by Sir Isaac Newton, then Britain’s Warden of the Royal Mint. In coinage as a backing for paper (fiat) money, gold’s value has fluctuated with world crises and market forces. When no longer pegged at $35 (U.S.) per troy ounce after 1971, gold became a freely traded commodity. Gold is Money. Gold represents wealth and for many reasons, this has never been truer than at the present time.” (Winter Warning, October 19, 2009 – All That Glitters Is Gold by Ian Gordon and Christopher Funston)
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In order to fully appreciate the current state of economic depression in the United States, it behooves us to draw some policy comparisons and parallels between the Obama administration and those of Presidents Hoover and Roosevelt during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
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In our Winter Warning of December 1, 2008 entitled as above, we concluded: “From the smallest to the greatest in size, many American states are seeking direct and immediate financial assistance of an historic magnitude, from the Federal Government. It remains to be seen if President Elect Obama will include financial aid to state and local governments in his anticipated $500 billion (U.S.) stimulus package for the economy, because lots of states are in dire straits.” In the intervening 20-month period, while financial assistance from Washington has been sparse, the deficit plight of a majority of the U.S. states has materially worsened. Indeed, states and municipalities which raise money in the $2.8 billion (U.S.) municipal bond market, have grabbed the global spotlight recently after several years of deteriorating budget deficits, igniting investor worries concerning global public finances.
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Gold and paper are forever at war with each other. Throughout the centuries they have waged many battles. Each of these battles has produced an outright winner and a decimated loser. This is best illustrated by the Dow/Gold ratio chart, which quite simply, is the price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (paper), divided by the US dollar price for an ounce of gold. The level this Wednesday, July 14, 2010 stood at 8.54.
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The autumn period of the Long Wave has always been the season of excessive speculation, which has been aided and abetted by a massive expansion in credit. Each of these four Kondratieff autumns has developed along a specific investment theme. When the speculation comes to a crashing halt it ushers in the onset of the Long Wave winter depression, during which time the credit excesses of autumn are eradicated, resulting in a significant turmoil within the banking system.

The American System 1816 – 1837
Speculative theme – Canal building, road construction and government land sales

The Second Industrial Revolution 1864 – 1873
Speculative theme – Railroad construction

The Roaring Twenties 1921 – 1929
Speculative Theme – Industry growth; automobiles, aeroplanes, radio, refrigeration

1982 – 2000
Speculative theme – High technology and Dot-com

By comparing the four autumn economic waves in the United States chronicled above, we can discern a commonality that whether the primary focus of an economic wave is government land sales; railroad construction; industrial stocks/equities; or high tech/internet IPO’s; the bubble patterns are always the same. The natural progression of a bull market – rampant speculation and excessive debt creation – always leads the long term business cycle from the Kondratieff autumn to the bursting of the bubble and into the economic depression of a Kondratieff winter – deflation, high unemployment and economic contraction. This is why the current winter cycle will end badly; because the massive debt accumulation has yet to be expurgated from the American economy. Will we witness the bankruptcy of U.S. states and municipalities, or even the U.S. itself during the current Kondratieff winter cycle?
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Today, as sovereign countries exacerbate their debt problems with excessive borrowing and spending programs, the global marketplace risks plunging inexorably towards a state of economic depression. In recent months, it has primarily been the euro zone members in the Mediterranean commercial forum who have been struggling; with their fiscal deficits, soaring bond yields and sovereign debt rating downgrades.
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“It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.” Yogi Berra, New York Yankee – Hall of Famer
Everyone of any importance is telling you that ‘it is over;’ ‘It’ being the “Great Recession.” A recent headline in The Financial Times read, “Upbeat Signals on the Economy.” The story began, “The Chairman of the US Federal Reserve and the head of one of the country’s biggest banks struck a bullish tone on the economy yesterday, hailing stronger spending by businesses and consumers as a harbinger of domestic recovery.”
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For the past three decades, China’s economy has been defying the odds with gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates averaging in the range of 8% to10% on an annual basis. All of China’s economic expansion, whether focused on domes¬tic infrastructure projects such as new roads and bridges, or on foreign trade policies which emphasize exports, has been at the direction of a communist political regime.
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Over the past several months, the New York City-based Rolling Stone magazine has published two articles very critical of the various dealings of Wall Street banking le¬viathan Goldman Sachs. Also, at Long Wave Analytics, we published a Winter Warning newsletter on the same topic, entitled For the Love of Money, dated February 15, 2010.
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In William Shakespeare’s play Henry V, published in the year 1600, the English king dispatches his uncle, the Duke of Exeter, to the court of King Charles VI of France demanding the French king’s surrender prior to the Battle of Agincourt in October, 1415. Duke of Exeter: “From his most fam’d of famous ancestors, Edward III, His Majesty bids you then resign Your crown and kingdom, indirectly held From him the native and true challenger”.
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In a CBS News/60 Minutes interview televised in October, 2008, journalist Leslie Stahl had this verbal exchange with former Bank of America President and Chief Execu¬tive Officer, Ken Lewis. This writer has since reflected upon this interview many times and marveled how prophetic it was for Mr. Lewis’ future.
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Money, especially in the form of coins, has been with mankind for over 2,000 years. Whether they were coins struck in ancient Greece, or in the form of the Roman De¬narius of Augustus Caesar, the act of coinage has a long and troubled history. For many in biblical times, these coins were symbols of the ultimate authority of the state and proof that all wealth actually belonged to the emperor.
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We’re almost beginning to dislike ourselves on account of all the negative things we’ve been writing about. We don’t like it, but we must be realistic and call them as we see them. Unfortunately, we just don’t foresee much that we feel good about, except perhaps the price of gold, but that’s good because every¬thing else looks so bad.
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“When President Clinton was fighting his first presidential campaign against George H.W. Bush, he kept a piece of paper in his pocket on which he had written,’ it’s the economy, stupid.’ This was to remind him that that he was fighting the election during a time of a mild recession in the US. In like manner, all my readers need to know is that, ‘it’s the DEBT, stupid,’ which is the principal cause of the impending depression.” The Long Wave Analyst, January 2003. P. 4
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Big Brother is alive and living in Washington, D.C. but he is not well. A malaise of weaknesses and failures, unearthed during the recent credit crisis, continues to permeate through various regulatory agencies such as the Federal Reserve Board, as well as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and threatens the very survival of the American financial system.
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When U.S. President Barack Obama embarks on his Asian trip this week, his broad agenda will be well-paved with good intentions and lofty aspirations. The President has long signaled that the United States wants to improve its working relationships with the powerhouse nations of East Asia. This resurrected U.S. initiative underscores the President’s conviction that having economic and military influence in the area is critical to American interests.
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Over the millennia, dating back to the time of ancient Egypt in 3150 B.C., gold has always been highly prized by mankind. Indeed, whether used for ornamentation, or as a medium of exchange, gold has a long history as a store of value. Gold has withstood the test of time in terms of its density, malleability and lustre. The price of gold was first standardized in 1717 by Sir Isaac Newton, then Britain’s Warden of the Royal Mint. In coinage and as backing for paper (fiat) money, gold’s value has fluctuated with world crises and market forces.
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In September, 1931, the world monetary system collapsed and the unfolding banking crisis prompted Americans to buy and hold gold as the ultimate currency and “treasured store of value.” In April 1933, in order to protect American gold reserves, President Roosevelt denounced American gold hoarders and confiscated all privately held gold. By the end of the Second World War, since the United States possessed the highest amount of gold reserves of any modern economy, the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference at Bretton Woods in July, 1944, sought to circumvent this disparity by designing a new international monetary system.
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Consider this title as an analogy of the U.S. economy, directed by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke and leading to the second great economic depression. In his book, The Ascent of Money, author Niall Ferguson recounts that “most advanced economies essentially followed the British lead when it came to regulation through a monopolistic central bank operating on the gold standard and concentration of deposit-taking by a relatively few large institutions. The Banque de France was established in 1800, the German Reichsbank in 1875, the bank of Japan in 1882, the Swiss National Bank in 1907; while legislation was not passed to create the Federal Reserve System until 1913.”
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Whether the world is enduring a period of full-blown economic depression, or a single country is just experiencing a national recession, nothing punishes an economy, or oppresses a work force more severely, than the scourge of unemployment. For many years, the Long Wave Analyst has forecast that during the next global economic depression, such as in the present, the unemployment rates of major western economies would climb to double-digit levels.
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For several years, the Long Wave Analyst has been predicting that numerous corporate and government pension plans would be adversely affected in a very meaningful way during the next global economic depression, which is now upon us.
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After being in business for 101 years, General Motors is currently undergoing an historic transformation and downsizing, while in bankruptcy protection. Financial support for the company, emanating from the American, Canadian and Ontario taxpayer; as well as the United Auto Workers Union (UAW) appears to be embedded in the belief that General Motors is a vital generator of national wealth and will emerge from bankruptcy as a transformed, competitive automaker on a global basis.
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Facing a $24 billion (U.S.) budget shortfall and running short of practical solutions, California is moving closer to a self-induced state of bankruptcy. In a special Tuesday morning address last week at the Sacramento Capitol, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger told State lawmakers that “California’s day of reckoning is here” and that government inaction could cause the State to run out of cash within 2 weeks.
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September 18: “There will be ample opportunities to debate the origins of this problem. Now is the time to solve it” – President George Bush
September 19: The U.S. Government expends $814 billion (U.S.) on the takeovers of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and insurance colossus American International Group (AIG)
October 15: The U.S. Congress passes emergency legislation to create a $700 billion (U.S.) Troubled Asset Relief Plan (TARP) allowing the U.S. Treasury to directly purchase up to $250 billion (U.S.) of senior preferred shares, carrying a dividend of 5%, of banks and designated financial institutions for a period of three years.
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During 2008, with well known retailers like Circuit City and Linens ‘n Things filing for bankruptcy protection, and retail vacancies at U.S. malls and shopping centers approaching a 10-year high; several Wall Street research analysts predicted as many as 12,000 retail stores would close during 2009. As the global depression deepened, it soon became quite evident that many U.S. commercial real estate enterprises were besought with mounting financial troubles, elevating concerns that the commercial market may experience its own subprime-like mortgage debacle.
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In our Winter Warning newsletter of April 13th. No Man Is an Island, Entire of Itself, in addition to Ireland, we identified two other troubled economies within the Euro Zone. Accordingly, outlined below is the current economic plight of the Kingdom of Spain and the Italian Republic.
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Ireland, the Emerald Isle, also earned the economic label of the Celtic Tiger during its economic boom times in the mid 1990’s. Nowadays, however, this small country is facing its most serious and dangerous economic period since the great potato famine of the 1830’s.
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Last weekend’s G20 economic summit in London provided several world leaders with a unique opportunity, not only to perform some political grandstanding, but also, to be perceived to be doing something concrete about the current global economic depression. Assuredly, anyone who expected the London summit to solve the world’s economic crises wears a naïve and gullible mantle.
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Let the word go forth, the United States of America is beginning to drown in a tsunami of red ink. The U.S. national debt has recently surpassed the $11 trillion (U.S.) mark and is increasing at the staggering rate of $350 million (U.S.) per hour. In our March 2nd. Winter Warning, a Man of Constant Sorrow (2), we stated that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projections set forth in President Obama’s budget for the next 5 years were overly optimistic and constituted “a pipedream of wishful thinking.”
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Embodied within many western democratic societies are political lobbying systems which, if abused, can adversely upset the normal functioning of an economy, driving it into a recession, or even a depression. Surrounding the American system of government, for example, there exists a body of some 42,000 myopic, well remunerated, self-serving registered lobbyists representing special interest groups, who can greatly influence and ofttimes, dictate government policy.
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The U.S. Congress has passed President Obama’s Recovery and Reinvestment Act unveiling a $787 billion (U.S.) economic stimulus package which provides an array of tax cuts for individuals and business; aid to cash starved states; food assistance for the poor; infrastructure spending for road and bridge construction; additional jobless benefits and billions of dollars in new spending on other items.
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s recently revealed Financial Stability policy initiatives can be likened to a failed launching of trial balloons due to insufficient helium. Mr. Geithner’s income tax controversy during his confirmation hearing, notwithstanding, his initial attempt at designing a major policy initiative was deemed by the marketplace to be a dog’s breakfast. Basically, Mr. Geithner outlined a three point template which was long on guidelines, but short on specifics, to wit:
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For decades, particularly during the years after the Second World War, the Canadian investment industry was comprised of 4 corporate groups (colloquially known as the “four pillars”) and consisted of investment dealers, insurance companies, trust companies and investment counselors. Basically, each of these corporate entities specialized in its own field of expertise and didn’t intrude in another’s realm of operations. During these decades, the Canadian chartered banks were primarily focused on making loans and trading the foreign exchange markets for their balance of revenue. However, all of this changed in 1987, when new federal government legislation allowed the banks to purchase up to 100% of a Canadian investment dealer.
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After 17 months of a market freeze for non-bank asset backed commercial paper (ABCP), the Ontario Superior Court has approved the final plan of the Montreal Consortium to fully compensate about 1,800 retail investors for their ABCP holdings and issue 8-year notes to most institutional investors, in exchange for their ABCP holdings. This financial travesty should never have unfolded within the Canadian commercial paper market because this non-bank securitized paper should never have been issued in the first place. In any event, there is no shortage of culpability to be shared by many market participants.
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During the 1960’s and 1970’s, Bell Telephone (now Bell Canada) new debt issues were rated “AAA” in the corporate bond market and distributed through a syndicate of investment dealers according to their respective levels of placing power. A.E. Ames (taken over by Dominion Securities in 1981) was the lead underwriter for those issues, which enjoyed good liquidity / marketability in the secondary market because of the syndication method of distribution. Moreover, the responsible, prevailing borrower attitude towards credit ratings at that time was, not only to avoid a rating downgrade, (however small), but also, to strive for a rating upgrade, in order to lower the relative cost of capital in the future; for expansion, new plants, equipment etc.
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In our newsletter of November 18th. I stated my personal philosophy that ‘life is unfair, fragile and there are no guarantees’. Excepting the spectre of the demon unemployment rearing its ugly head, nowhere in the business world today is this philosophy more meaningful than in the world of corporate defined-benefit pension plans. Indeed, millions of Canadian and American workers make regular contributions to their company pension plans over many decades, augmented by contributions to the plan by their employer. Most corporate employees expect that at the time of their retirement, monies from their company pension plan will be available to provide them with a steady, reliable income in their golden years. Amid the current North American economic recession, employees should not assume that all of their pension expectations are guaranteed.
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Virtually, all across the spectrum of America, many regions, states and municipalities are encountering serious financial problems and are unable to balance their annual budgets. In the northeast, according to a recent forecast by the New England Economic Partnership (NEEP), New England is destined to experience a “significant recession” that will cost the region 250,000 jobs through the end of the decade. The forecast stated that New England will experience a “pronounced and prolonged employment decline and a weak economic recovery because of the region’s relatively high concentration in business investment and high-income dependent industries”.
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During a recent press conference, Treasury Secretary Paulson revealed that the U.S. Government had reconsidered its original bailout plan and decided to cancel plans to purchase illiquid / troubled mortgage-backed securities, in favour of “a more timely effective step” of taking direct equity positions in financial institutions, via a capital purchase program. Mr. Paulson further stated that “banks must also continue lending” and that his focus remains the promotion of bank lending and credit availability. As I have stated in two previous newsletters “it is difficult to force bankers to lend money, when they are not in a mood to do so.”
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During recent hearings held by the U.S. Congressional Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, credit rating agency executives were questioned about their corporate roles in assessing the risks of mortgage-backed securities. Raymond W. McDaniel of Moody’s Investors Service, Deven Sharma of Standard and Poor’s and Stephen W. Joynt of Fitch Ratings all denied that conflicts of interest impaired their judgment in their failure to evaluate mortgage-backed securities on a realistic basis. Indeed, these agencies employ long-established and detailed business models for the purpose of risk assessment. Therefore, what is the reason why, in the words of Committee Chairman Henry Waxman, “the story of the credit rating agencies is a story of colossal failure.” The answer is that their actions were motivated by the high expectation of reaping excessive profits.
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In my Winter Warning newsletter of October 6th. I stated that ‘we ought to be hearing EU pleas for a return to a global financial system wherein currencies are backed by a reliable standard of value, such as, the discipline of the gold standard’. Indeed, emerging from a recent European summit in Brussels, we heard an appeal from Gordon Brown, U.K. Prime Minister, for a major summit of world leaders to be convened before the end of 2008, wherein they could rewrite the rules for international capitalism that have been followed since 1944. Mr. Brown said that he was seeking ‘very large and radical changes … a new Bretton Woods’. Also, Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank President, who also attended the summit, said that it was ‘absolutely clear that financial markets need discipline – macroeconomic discipline, monetary discipline and market discipline’. al failure.” The answer is that their actions were motivated by the high expectation of reaping excessive profits.
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With Ireland now officially in an economic recession and with a crisis of confidence threatening its financial sector, the Irish Government has issued a guarantee for about $600 billion (U.S.) of six major Irish bank’s debts and deposits over the next two years. Now that Greece has since followed suit, it appears that Germany and Denmark are preparing government guarantees covering all cash and savings bank accounts held by individuals. France has acknowledged that it is in recession and the economies of Spain, Denmark and the U.K. are on the brink of recession themselves. EU leaders from Britain, France, Italy and Germany attended an emergency meeting in Paris this past weekend to address their growing financial crisis. Europe’s “big four” decided to establish a $32 billion (U.S.) assistance package for small businesses across Europe.
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In the year 49 B.C. Gaius Julius Caesar uttered this phrase while crossing the Rubicon River back into Italy from France with his legion, thus ensuring the outbreak of a Roman civil war with legions led by Gnaeus Pompeius Magnus. This analogy of no turning back, can be applied today to the U.S. dollar, while an enormous Federal Government bailout, currently being fashioned to alleviate the financial woes of several major U.S. investment banks, insurers and mortgage lenders; will propel the greenback down the river of no return, as the world’s reserve currency. From the current account deficit to the international trade deficit and from the fiscal deficit to the national debt level, as this analyst has long predicted, a financial apocalypse in America will culminate in the global monetary system returning to the discipline of the gold standard.
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Winter Warning this week is entirely the work of Alf Field who has written a very good piece entitled “Chaos Chronicled”. Alf leads you through the history of the world financial crisis. He begins with an explanation of Goldsmiths, the original bankers, followed by the development into the Fractional Reserve Banking system. Alf then discusses the International Monetary System based on the dollar and the inherit weakness in such a system due to the ability of banks around the world to consistently add massively to loans. This is followed by an explanation of the OTC derivatives market and the crisis which has developed in this milieu. “Chaos Chronicled” is a coherent and chronological evolution into the crisis that has now enveloped the world.
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“One ray of hope is that recessions in America have changed over the years. Thanks to a more flexible economy, smarter central bankers and lower inflation, recessions tend to be shorter and shallower.” The Economist, Gloomy days in America, April 4th, 2008. I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry when I read this. How can the writer not know that the economic downturn now facing the United States is a direct result of the moronic fiscal and monetary policies initiated by the Federal Reserve under the stewardship of Sir Alan Greenspan who, according to Ron Hubbard, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors in 2003 “...Is the finest Chairman we’ve ever had.” What a joke.
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Financial crisis knocks it back to 1973 levels. McMullen, Alia, Financial Post (National Post), Wednesday, March 26th, 2008. US consumer confidence figures released for March fell 11.9 points to 64.5. This is down 29% from December and 40% from a year ago. Expectations for the US economy were down to 1973 levels at 47.9. David Rosenberg, North American economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, quoted in this article said, “Fed policy eases and US $300 rebate checks from Uncle Sam are proving no match for the rocketing pump prices, intensifying real estate deflation, the worst financial crisis in decades and a deteriorating economic and employment backdrop.”
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In The Financial Times Insight Column of March 18th, 2008, David Roche wrote an article suggesting that commodities could fall by as much as 30%. The following is the gist of Mr. Roche’s article. Speculation in commodities now accounts for more than 50% of trading. But the notional value of commodity derivatives is only 1/10th the global equity market valuation. “The rush to commodities by investors has been like squeezing a quart into a pint pot.” Global growth is in rapid decline. “Recession will ensue and no region or asset class will be immune from its ravages.”
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I have long outlined that a Kondratieff winter is the season when debt is cleansed from the economy. This process is always very painful. In the previous Kondratieff winter, “From 1929 to 1932 in the US, there were 85,000 business bankruptcies and 10,000 commercial bank failures. Nine million personal savings accounts were eradicated. National Income (GDP) dropped from $81 billion in 1929 to $41 billion in 1932. Unemployment rose from 3 percent to 25 percent. Hourly wages declined 60 percent, dividends 50 percent and salaries 40 percent. The value of construction fell from $10.8 billion to $2.9 billion during these four years. Housing starts dropped to 93,000 in 1933, one tenth of what they were in 1925.” The Long Wave Analyst, Vol. 1, Issue 1. Jan/Feb 1998.
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